Anwar El-Sadat landing in Tel Aviv, 1977. (Source: BBC News)We can summarise this attitude as follows: economic and political accords, smiling handshakes on the one hand, with constant expressions of dislike, defiance and distrust on the other.
This schism is apparent in the State and public spheres and alike -nevertheless with dominant appeasement on the government level, hostility on the popular one.
Schizophrenia or hypocrisy, I am unsure.
The main difference would be intent: a hypocrite is two faced, deliberately changing masks according to his preferences or interests of the day.
A schizophrenic (more accurately, a person suffering from a multiple personality disorder) would unwillingly be trapped between two personalities, failing to control their traits, simultaneously displaying contradicting behaviour.
I went with schizophrenia. I’d rather be psychologically unstable than a hypocrite.
Egyptians dread terrorist attacks in the Sinai and curse the terrorists that conduct them because they scare away vacationers, mainly Israelis - a lifeline for the peninsula’s tourism industry, and whom are by the way well liked by Egyptian backpackers - yet indulge in an extravagant group delirium when a group of old Jewish ladies who grew up in Cairo book a trip to visit the places of their childhood, eventually leading to the cancellation of the entire visit, as happened last year.
The minister of culture valiantly declares in the Parliament that he will “burn Israeli books himself if he sees them in a Cairo bookstore” but promptly gives an appeasing 7-page interview to an Israeli newspaper, whose reporter spent a weekend in his company in Cairo.
Cairo’s leading school for Economics and Political Science - my alma matter - offers no class dedicated to the study of Israel as a country or a society, bringing up the subject through a - single - course on 'Arab-Israeli relations'.
Yet Hebrew education, either in universities or privately, is so booming - that Xceed, a Cairo-based company primarily offering distance tech-support for Microsoft’s international customers in nine languages, has set up a Hebrew Department. Israeli settlers phoning to register their Microsoft products might find themselves in touch with a veiled Cairene woman.
The QIZ agreement (for Qualified Industrial Zones), a US-chaperoned deal fostering Egyptian-Israeli industrial cooperation was heavily vilified as “forced normalization” - at the very same time that queues of Egyptian applicants seeking to take advantage of the deal were reaching all the way outside the Egyptian ministry of external trade. A recent article in the Al-Ahram daily newspaper showed that the agreement was overall beneficial for Egypt; discussions with Israelis showed it remains marginal to the Israeli public and economy.
Egypt threatens to pull out of international cultural events, as it recently did with the Dubai film festival, because they had scheduled an Israeli film (ironically, the film in question “The Band’s Visit”, where most actors are Palestinian Israelis playing an Egyptian music band lost in a small Israeli town).
Yet we seem to be valued consumers of Israeli porn - so much that several Israeli adult entertainment websites now offer a version of their websites in Arabic for the benefit of their visitors from neighbouring countries.
These and innumerable other examples not withstanding, Egyptians stubbornly refuse to admit this duality.
As for Egyptians visiting Israel, that’s another story altogether.
While Israelis may drive freely into the Sinai and can easily obtain a visa to the rest of the country, Egyptians visiting Israel are heavily discouraged by their own authorities, and scorned at upon their return.
On a government level, expressing the will to visit Israel or Palestine - as both are a single unit to the Egyptian police administration - requires one to submit to a long investigative process by both the Internal Security (the average person’s nightmare) and the Counter-intelligence services, who must both approve your plans and declare you are not a threat to the country.
Such stringent rules apply even you are visiting your Palestinian wife’s family, or even working for an international humanitarian organisation in a refugee camp.
Subsequent governmental hassle is automatically to be expected. Holding a position in the State can be jeopardized.
An Israeli passport stamp is an Egyptian scarlet letter.
On the personal level, one receives the oddest - and generally the most unfriendly - reactions. Insults and suspicion are not uncommon. Potentially damaging rumours and accusations are legion - ‘normalizing’ and ‘being on their payroll’ are the most common.
Mona El Tahawy, an Egyptian-American journalist who has covered Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories in the past and visits the region periodically, is constantly subject to such abuse. Angry messages she received on a public internet forum, upon her last visit to Tel Aviv a few months back, included such delightful thing as “can you smell the charred flesh of Palestinian children?”.“(Ariel) Sharon is your godfather” was another’s insult of choice. Expressing disagreement with the angry mob exposed one to their vitriol as well.
Yet Mona is a very unique example, and she remains undaunted by the violent reactions to her personal choice to establish ‘normal’ relations with Israel and Israelis - as a place that can be visited and people who can be spoken to.
I have personally chosen to maintain a degree of privacy regarding my own visits to Israel - without hiding it, clearly - my articles and photos are openly published on the internet.
Egyptian public personas are exposed to a different set of complications.
Author Ali Salem, who visited Israel in 1994 and wrote an essay about it (an excerpt of which can be found here) was expelled from the Egyptian writers union for "activity aiming at normalizing the relation with the Zionists”. Salem sued the Union, won the legal battle, then quit the Union. He has not been published since.
Opera singer Gaber Beltagui had his membership from the Musicians’ Union suspended after singing at the 100th anniversary of Cairo’s largest synagogue - a public event which was attended by many an Egyptian and foreign officials. Beltagui had obtained the permission of the Internal Security before he sang.
Yet despite everything, there is traffic on the Egyptian Israeli border - or around it.
The number of Egyptians in Israel, in the words of an Egyptian Embassy official in Tel Aviv I spoke to, is “unknown: they don’t come to register”. But he admitted that they were “in the thousands”.
Many are illegal workers. Some have settled, married - Palestinian Israeli women - and have become citizens. Egyptian press took some interest in them, and the topic resurfaces on occasion, triggering the unavoidable round of calls for stripping them of their citizenship. I am unavoidably baffled by the huffing and puffing armchair generals calling them a ‘national security threat’ on state television, for this is, after all, a country that Egyptians are legally allowed to visit, to marry into, to move to.
But as always, the officious version of the rule is very different.
Conflicted feelings, then. But how Egyptians should behave about ‘normalisation’, or lack thereof, should not depend on feelings but interests.
In terms of interests, two main reasons compel Egypt to maintain friendly relations with Israel. The first is that Egypt simply cannot afford to have a troubled north-eastern border - more so than it currently is. Nor can it afford to engage in diplomatic hostilities, let along military skirmishes with Israel: they’d be in Cairo by tea-time.
The second is the very consequential financial incentive - bribe, really - that Egypt receives from the Americans to maintain its peace treaty, making it the second largest recipient of Washington’s largesse after Israel.
On the other hand, those refusing an upgrade in relationships with Israel also have strong arguments on their side: out of moral principle, no relations should be established until Israel withdraws from all occupied territories and refrains from trampling human rights within Israel and in the Territories.
And of course, appeasing Egyptian popular anger vis-à-vis Israel’s actions, particularly in the context of a fragile political regime, is also an interest in itself.
The more politically astute would add that Egyptian relations with Israeli should be maintained for future use as a pressure card - and a carrot for the Israelis to seek a peaceful settlement with their neighbours.
This split personality is untenable at the long term, and it is only a matter of time until Egypt is pushed out of its uncomfortable fence-sitting onto one side or the other. Political movement from within, changing regional dynamics, external pressure are as many uncontrollable factors that can force the State into one corner, which may not be in its strategic interest.
On a more personal level, the ambient schizophrenia needs to stop; at least a semblant of honesty must be achieved.
And whichever way the country chooses to go - I shall accept.
This schism is apparent in the State and public spheres and alike -nevertheless with dominant appeasement on the government level, hostility on the popular one.
Schizophrenia or hypocrisy, I am unsure.
The main difference would be intent: a hypocrite is two faced, deliberately changing masks according to his preferences or interests of the day.
A schizophrenic (more accurately, a person suffering from a multiple personality disorder) would unwillingly be trapped between two personalities, failing to control their traits, simultaneously displaying contradicting behaviour.
I went with schizophrenia. I’d rather be psychologically unstable than a hypocrite.
Egyptians dread terrorist attacks in the Sinai and curse the terrorists that conduct them because they scare away vacationers, mainly Israelis - a lifeline for the peninsula’s tourism industry, and whom are by the way well liked by Egyptian backpackers - yet indulge in an extravagant group delirium when a group of old Jewish ladies who grew up in Cairo book a trip to visit the places of their childhood, eventually leading to the cancellation of the entire visit, as happened last year.
The minister of culture valiantly declares in the Parliament that he will “burn Israeli books himself if he sees them in a Cairo bookstore” but promptly gives an appeasing 7-page interview to an Israeli newspaper, whose reporter spent a weekend in his company in Cairo.
Cairo’s leading school for Economics and Political Science - my alma matter - offers no class dedicated to the study of Israel as a country or a society, bringing up the subject through a - single - course on 'Arab-Israeli relations'.
Yet Hebrew education, either in universities or privately, is so booming - that Xceed, a Cairo-based company primarily offering distance tech-support for Microsoft’s international customers in nine languages, has set up a Hebrew Department. Israeli settlers phoning to register their Microsoft products might find themselves in touch with a veiled Cairene woman.
The QIZ agreement (for Qualified Industrial Zones), a US-chaperoned deal fostering Egyptian-Israeli industrial cooperation was heavily vilified as “forced normalization” - at the very same time that queues of Egyptian applicants seeking to take advantage of the deal were reaching all the way outside the Egyptian ministry of external trade. A recent article in the Al-Ahram daily newspaper showed that the agreement was overall beneficial for Egypt; discussions with Israelis showed it remains marginal to the Israeli public and economy.
Egypt threatens to pull out of international cultural events, as it recently did with the Dubai film festival, because they had scheduled an Israeli film (ironically, the film in question “The Band’s Visit”, where most actors are Palestinian Israelis playing an Egyptian music band lost in a small Israeli town).
Yet we seem to be valued consumers of Israeli porn - so much that several Israeli adult entertainment websites now offer a version of their websites in Arabic for the benefit of their visitors from neighbouring countries.
These and innumerable other examples not withstanding, Egyptians stubbornly refuse to admit this duality.
As for Egyptians visiting Israel, that’s another story altogether.
While Israelis may drive freely into the Sinai and can easily obtain a visa to the rest of the country, Egyptians visiting Israel are heavily discouraged by their own authorities, and scorned at upon their return.
On a government level, expressing the will to visit Israel or Palestine - as both are a single unit to the Egyptian police administration - requires one to submit to a long investigative process by both the Internal Security (the average person’s nightmare) and the Counter-intelligence services, who must both approve your plans and declare you are not a threat to the country.
Such stringent rules apply even you are visiting your Palestinian wife’s family, or even working for an international humanitarian organisation in a refugee camp.
Subsequent governmental hassle is automatically to be expected. Holding a position in the State can be jeopardized.
An Israeli passport stamp is an Egyptian scarlet letter.
On the personal level, one receives the oddest - and generally the most unfriendly - reactions. Insults and suspicion are not uncommon. Potentially damaging rumours and accusations are legion - ‘normalizing’ and ‘being on their payroll’ are the most common.
Mona El Tahawy, an Egyptian-American journalist who has covered Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories in the past and visits the region periodically, is constantly subject to such abuse. Angry messages she received on a public internet forum, upon her last visit to Tel Aviv a few months back, included such delightful thing as “can you smell the charred flesh of Palestinian children?”.“(Ariel) Sharon is your godfather” was another’s insult of choice. Expressing disagreement with the angry mob exposed one to their vitriol as well.
Yet Mona is a very unique example, and she remains undaunted by the violent reactions to her personal choice to establish ‘normal’ relations with Israel and Israelis - as a place that can be visited and people who can be spoken to.
I have personally chosen to maintain a degree of privacy regarding my own visits to Israel - without hiding it, clearly - my articles and photos are openly published on the internet.
Egyptian public personas are exposed to a different set of complications.
Author Ali Salem, who visited Israel in 1994 and wrote an essay about it (an excerpt of which can be found here) was expelled from the Egyptian writers union for "activity aiming at normalizing the relation with the Zionists”. Salem sued the Union, won the legal battle, then quit the Union. He has not been published since.
Opera singer Gaber Beltagui had his membership from the Musicians’ Union suspended after singing at the 100th anniversary of Cairo’s largest synagogue - a public event which was attended by many an Egyptian and foreign officials. Beltagui had obtained the permission of the Internal Security before he sang.
Yet despite everything, there is traffic on the Egyptian Israeli border - or around it.
The number of Egyptians in Israel, in the words of an Egyptian Embassy official in Tel Aviv I spoke to, is “unknown: they don’t come to register”. But he admitted that they were “in the thousands”.
Many are illegal workers. Some have settled, married - Palestinian Israeli women - and have become citizens. Egyptian press took some interest in them, and the topic resurfaces on occasion, triggering the unavoidable round of calls for stripping them of their citizenship. I am unavoidably baffled by the huffing and puffing armchair generals calling them a ‘national security threat’ on state television, for this is, after all, a country that Egyptians are legally allowed to visit, to marry into, to move to.
But as always, the officious version of the rule is very different.
Conflicted feelings, then. But how Egyptians should behave about ‘normalisation’, or lack thereof, should not depend on feelings but interests.
In terms of interests, two main reasons compel Egypt to maintain friendly relations with Israel. The first is that Egypt simply cannot afford to have a troubled north-eastern border - more so than it currently is. Nor can it afford to engage in diplomatic hostilities, let along military skirmishes with Israel: they’d be in Cairo by tea-time.
The second is the very consequential financial incentive - bribe, really - that Egypt receives from the Americans to maintain its peace treaty, making it the second largest recipient of Washington’s largesse after Israel.
On the other hand, those refusing an upgrade in relationships with Israel also have strong arguments on their side: out of moral principle, no relations should be established until Israel withdraws from all occupied territories and refrains from trampling human rights within Israel and in the Territories.
And of course, appeasing Egyptian popular anger vis-à-vis Israel’s actions, particularly in the context of a fragile political regime, is also an interest in itself.
The more politically astute would add that Egyptian relations with Israeli should be maintained for future use as a pressure card - and a carrot for the Israelis to seek a peaceful settlement with their neighbours.
This split personality is untenable at the long term, and it is only a matter of time until Egypt is pushed out of its uncomfortable fence-sitting onto one side or the other. Political movement from within, changing regional dynamics, external pressure are as many uncontrollable factors that can force the State into one corner, which may not be in its strategic interest.
On a more personal level, the ambient schizophrenia needs to stop; at least a semblant of honesty must be achieved.
And whichever way the country chooses to go - I shall accept.
51 comments:
Many countries have policies that others find immoral. Should countries really only have relations with countries they agree with 100%? This would mean that there would be about five active embassies in Cairo, for example.
Hey Mohamed,
I've been checking out your blog. Great post. The Middle East is such a f*cked up place...:-) I'm really happy you came to Israel - despite the various difficulties/feelings you had to deal with given the politicial situation! Peace!:-D
Mohamed, howe come Egypt keep the border close for the palestinians? I mean, I understand you don't want any Hamasniks, but what about the civilians?
Helen
Mo-Ha-Med;
Since we kindly exchanges opinions on subject of Normalization and acceptance of Israel at Nizo’s, I can’t help but conclude that getting on your nerves is beneficial for your post-hungry readers :)
Your post does confirms my impression of Egyptian attitude, though I cannot except the Schizophrenic excuse for a whole nation, therefore I have to go with the Hypocrisy theorem.
As for Israel, the only time one even hears of Egyptian-Israeli economic relations is when the media discusses whether Egypt will honor the Gas deal with Israel (no it won’t), and whether the new Gas field found in Israel can replace Egypt as a gas supplier (Yes it can). As for the mixed Industrial zone with American incentives, it’s a good idea, also implemented with Jordan. Even so, A lot of Israeli companies looking for cheap labor still prefer the far-east.
G
We agree, overall. But I am voting for hypocrisy.
A collapse of Egypt into the eager arms (pardon the pun) of Ikhwan is practically inevitable. Then they will have to a) prove themselves as zalameh, b) get rid of a large quantity of unemployed young males and c) solidify their rule by proving the need for repression of dissent, torture and "disappearance" of political opponents, zealous religious insanity, mukhabarat and so on.
So the Brothers will, within the next two decades, drive a few hundred thousand poorly armed, poorly trained and poorly commanded landless falaheen across the border. They will die, Egypt's infrastructure will be smashed. If Ikhwan are stupid (or cynical) enough, a few million additional Egyptians will die with the landless falaheen; Egypt's military has just enough potential to justify pulverizing the country to prevent it from being realized.
Either way, the barbarian idiots will withdraw, possibly losing Sinai, and declare a great victory. They will be cheered by the populace and those not cheering loudly enough will get their knees shot off (if they're lucky). You know how it is and you know where it leads. Mubarak can hold it off only for that long. Frankly, I am amazed he managed it until now.
What we need is not "peace" or "normalization" with Egypt. Egypt has nothing beneficial to offer that can possibly offset the negatives. What we need is a big friggin' wall along the border, automated turrets and zero-tolerance policy towards infiltration. Along with good war readiness.
And as for honesty - I agree wholeheartedly. But Mubarak still wants Gamal to inherit a prosperous reign, and he's not stupid. So we'll have half-hearted pretense at civilization until the floodgates of barbarity crash open.
D'you reckon my dire predictions are off, ya Mo?
Mo, Great post... Excellent blog! Certainly this is food for thought.
Abu Sa'ar and his crystal ball have a point. Rarely does one see the kind of cold-blooded, cynical analysis of events and conditions found on this page by the two of you.
I wish you both were wrong but probably not. I see the brotherhood taking Egypt in 5 years. I see Eqypt turning into another Pakistan as people adopt a semi-taliban form of Islam (that must be what the 'floodgates of barbarity' comment above is about). I see the people of Egpyt suffering beyond their wildest imagination. I see the leaders blaming everybody but themselves or Islam for the troubles that are coming.
It is a good thing I like margaridas. It makes me forget these things for a while. Bad times are coming. Women will suffer. Good people will get hurt.
Kactuz
PS: I forgot. This will be the end of the Copts. After 1900 years they will be forced to convert, expelled or killed.
Hey Mo
Excellent post.
In the 80's there were buses from Tel Aviv to Cairo. They're gone now.
You're right about schizophrenia - this is the totalitarian regimes disease, alongside paranoia. I don't envy Mubarak, squeezed tight between american money, arab/muslim world's criticism and threats, and his own home-grown extremists.
I'm afraid this peace will only last as long as Mubarak. We should start building Abu Sa'ar's wall. I really hope it will not keep people like you out, too.
Mohamed, very insightful post. Hypocrisy or schizophrenia---neither seems to completely explain it---self-interest may, I think. Leader's greed for power and possessions---manipulating the masses who don't or can't think.
Abu Sa'ar's predictions seem all too likely to occur.
A pessimistic outlook altogether...
BTW, love your blog!!!!
Oh of course you shall accept do you really have an option?
No man has ever been cured from another mans placebos , it shall be interesting upon which side of the fence egypyt chooses...or is pushed.
I don't think that there would be a sense of comfortability inside the egyptian citizens with a peace treaty that they never had the chance to vote for it or for the gov that has opted it. I would love to read in numbers how much does the peace treaty with Israel has affected the egyptian gross income per year?
You said the you have to get the approval from the security departments before going to egypt, but do you get a visa upon arrival to western eilat the way the israelis get a visa to eastern Sinai? I don't feel that the peace treaty by itself was satisfactory for the normal egyptian citizen..... IMHO, Israel managed to make peace with the regimes and not with countries.
Khaled
"I would love to read in numbers how much does the peace treaty with Israel has affected the egyptian gross income per year?"
Ask Egypt's islamic scholars, those raving about eeeeeviiiiiiiil joooooos, why doesn't this peace treaty affect the income. If it wasn't for terrorist attacks and threats against israelis inside Egypt, and/or egyptian authorities paranoia (remember Azam Azam?), israeli tourism would have helped raise that income. See Turkey for comparison.
"I don't feel that the peace treaty by itself was satisfactory for the normal egyptian citizen..... IMHO, Israel managed to make peace with the regimes and not with countries."
I haven't seen so far any effort on the egyptian side to explain this peace to the normal egyptian citizen. We gave back Sinai, Egypt is giving us the middle finger...
Pisa, it is very hard to explain "Peace" with Israel while the normal egyptian citizen has an access to Aljazeera. Israel itself has failed to make "Peace" with its own arab citizens.
Giving back Sinai isn't giving anything. Egypt has risked its relations with all the arab countries in exchange for this agreement. Israel has received and continues to receive a large sum of money in exchange for this agreement. Israel received gaz in cheap prices in exchange for this agreement. Israel has managed to "make peace" with the most powerful arab nation in exchange for this peace. And let's not forget how much Egypt saves on the normal israeli citizen in his vacations. Egypt and Turkey are his cheap destinations. So, I feel it's a bit harsh to call this "the middle finger" .....
Khaled;
The economic benefits for Eygpt are pretty easy to estimate:
- Exports to Israel, approx 400-500 Million $ annualy
- US Aid (part of the peace accord): 3,000 Million $ annualy
- Common Industrial zone: I dont know exact figures, I estimate a couple of tens of thousands Eygptians employed with resulting exports to US probably up to 500 million $ annualy (Mo-Ha-Med posted those numbers in one of his posts).
- Israeli tourists: at their peak, about 400,000 per season. Dont know current numbers.
G
Oh, and let's not forget Eygpt got their Land back, with Oil and Gas wells included, US military aid, and also not having to keep up the Armed struggle against Israel, which was a serious drain on Eygptian resources.
G
G: Egypt's had 33.36$ Billion of exports in 2008. A country like Poland exports around 110$ billion per year. If it wasn't for Egypt's unstable and weak economy the number that you have mentioned would be nothing but very unimpressive.
BookMistress,
Absolutely not. For example, the USA and the Soviet Union had diplomatic relations since 1933 and all throughout the Cold War - which has actually allowed to avert many a conflict.
What I am criticizing is that we are unable to figure out what we want: cold relations, warm relations, no relations? I think it's time we answered this question. The ambiguity is getting on my nerves - and i believe is detrimental.
Moriya -
Well, thank you! F*cked up place indeed...
Helen:
Good question. shameful really - the answer in a nutshell is that we don't even control our own borders...
The borders, however, do open every now and then - once every week or 10 days, I think? - which is better than nothing but still ridiculously small. Especially during a time of war and refugees attempting to cross...
G
Getting on my nerves isn't - interesting discussions is, though. :-)
Re: hypocrisy: well, maybe. I don't think so though. Apart from the fact that defining an entire country's attitude in one word is nearly impossible, this attitude is a strange mix of not knowing what we want and not being sure what we can afford to reject -- added with an ambient social pressure to maintain the status quo.
I am well aware that trade with Egypt is quite small for Israel. But it's positive. Not that big for Egypt really either though, but there's room for growth.
Gas deal: come on, the whole thing is a sham. This contract needs to be renegotiated.
Abu Sa'ar:
Interesting prediction - but I hope you're wrong!
Re: waging war with Israel: naaah. They won't have the guts, nor the recruits. A recent article created a big discussion in Egypt, where a journalist interviewed a few young people who were saying that there "were not willing to die for the country".
Plus, we've been through war before. People lost family members on the front.
And - we have enough problems with the Palestinians to justify not going to war on their behalf, as goes the well-used declaration.
As for a wall along the border - eh, suit yourselves. This time, try to do it actually on your side of the border, rather than zigazagging inside the other country's land?
Jay Kactuz
Thank you.
Naaah. Ikhwan rule is quite unlikely. Not because they won't be voted in: because the people currently at the helm won't let them near the Presidential Palace.
And we're really not into shit blowing, either. And a lot of shit blew up in Cairo in the 1990s, and the pressure actually led the Ikhwan to drop their violent ways (well, that and police torture).
Enjoy the margaritas!
Pisa
Actually they still exist; Mazada travel runs these. :) But I really don't recommend them: twice as expensive and they don't wait for you at the border.. Rather take an Egged bus to Eilat, cross the border, then onwards with an East Delta bus to Cairo. :))
"Squeezed" is the right term. You're forgetting a lot of local factors, though - because it isn't just the extremists who aren't fans of Tel Aviv: the general public opinion, too. And that's more important.
Relations with Israel are old enough - the big 3-0! - and are a bit of a 'fait accompli'. I don't see violent actions taking place over that...
As for Sinai - well it was ours to begin with. I'm still waiting compensation for all the oil you extracted from the peninsula and the canal between 1967 and 1981. :)
Lynne
I agree - self-interest SHOULD explain it. We're not there yet.
Keep the optimism up - and thank you for the compliment.
Perplexin Texan
I hope it won't come to 'being pushed'!
Khaled
As i said above, we got used to the peace agreement. Plus, let's be honest, it's a big part of why we're such an important ally of the US.
Incomewise: little from Israel itself; it's the US grant that's all the difference. I don't really know the numbers so I'll trust G's estimates (but G, 400,000 tourists? Unlikely...)
Tourism could be surely be boosted - geographic proximity+higher income could = $$; the QIZ zones are doing okay and growing; etc.
And kudos on covering the uncountable costs of the agreement for Egypt, I couldn't have done any better.
Mo-Ha-Med;
The 400,000 tourist estimate was for 1999, and I got it by goggling "Eygpt Israel trade"., and clicking the 1st (seemingly) credible site..:). I know there has been a steady decline since but the potential is there.
Khaled, Of course if Egypt exports were 200 billion annually this trade would seem unimpressive, but it isn’t, is it? With a 33 billion annual (GDP?) you quoted, a 4-5 billion boost from aid and trade is nothing to sneer about.
As for the Sinai, of course it was yours to begin with, still, the Military campaigns didn’t get it back, even the ones you consider successful. So it’s still a gain, considering the alternatives.
Have you seen Sandmonkey's response analysis to Egypt-Israel ties? He’s taking it a bit too far but there is truth in what he says - the stability and cooperation between the countries speaks for itself.
I wish we could get to the same situation with the Palestinians, no need for 'warm peace' there as well.
G
Oh, and it goes without saying that if it weren't for the fact Egyptian businessmen have to hide their trading with Israel because they fear the response of their peers, the trade volume would be far larger. The salary and price difference across the border has much higher potential for trade than has been so far realized. And most of this potential is for the benefit of the Egyptians, so don’t hold your breath waiting for Israel to work to hard on trying to improve it, it will have to come from you.
G
My point is: claiming that you lost or that you have sacrificed a lot as a result of peace isn't always true . Israel has too benefited from the peace agreements it has reached with its neighbours. This article shows some of the financial benefits of Oslo accords, afterall it seems that the peace agreement with the palestinians gave you the chance to eat from McDonald’s in Israel ;)
• A total of 33 states recognized the State of Israel (for the foreign minister this should be basic knowledge.)
• Economic growth reached 6% and beyond (and what is it at this time?)
• A total of 600,000 new immigrants moved here and settled in the country (and how many came here ever since then?)
• Israeli diplomatic missions were opened in seven Arab capitals (and how many were opened during the time you, Mr. Lieberman, served in the government?)
• The education budget was doubled, for the first time in the history of the state.
• About 200 international companies, most of them giant, made it to Israel for the first time (yes, this includes McDonald’s.)
• Unemployment decreased from 11.7% to 6.2%.
• States where an Israeli prime minister never traveled to hosted an Israeli prime minister for the first time: Russia, Japan, China, Korea, Indonesia, Morocco, and Oman.
• A peace treaty was signed with Jordan.
• A decision was taken to build the Cross-Israel Highway (Highway 6,) and construction work got underway.
• The decision was taken to build the new Ben-Gurion International Airport, and construction work got underway.
• The ratio between our national debt and production decreased by 28%.
• Incoming wealth went up from $120 million per year to about $5 billion.
• Seven new interchanges were built across Israel’s road system
• The list goes on..........
neither schizo nor hypocrisy not.........just stupidity.
Any real peace has to have one major ingredient: Stop the incitement against non-Muslims that comes out of the educational system, mosques, press, etc.etc. in the whole Arab world. Israel is just a piece of the Islam's puzzle, then comes Spain, Vienna and the rest of the world.......Tell S.Arabia to not only to stop funding the Wahabis of this world but to stop the constant incitement against the rest of us.........The "us" will not tolerate the uniformity of Dar al Islam. You know, we plain folks like variety...........STUPID, STUPID.........it's the beauty of peace vs. the agony of wars, death, worms........Where do the 3 billion go....to Switzerland? Why does the USA permit that? In the conspiracy theory we could fantasize that it goes from Egypt, to Switzerland and back to the USA................The more complicated relationships get the more sutpid our leaders get............
Khaled, I do agree; Israel has benefited greatly from the peace agreement with Egypt. Thank you for your list of facts. You know, we all are familiar with the "facts" presented by our media, the government, etc. within our own borders, and the wonderful thing about the blogs is that we get to share our ideas and our "facts"---which gives us a truer picture of reality. Good comment, Khaled!
I never said Israel did not benefit anything from the peace treaty, but the list you posted is completely non-relevant - what has most of it have to do with the Peace agreement with Egypt?!?!
I mean you simply listed a whole bunch of things that has happened in Israel since the 70's...I mean Route 6, airport construction, immigrants? Un-employment rates??
It is true Israel got a whole bunch of new diplomatic relations as a result of the Peace process, but most of our exports were to countries we already had trade with. The unemployment rates were due to reforms in the Israeli welfare market and the immigrant wave was due to difficult times in Russia in the 90's. Putting All of Israel's successes of the last 30 years on account of the peace process is ludicrous.
Israel's main achievement form the peace treaty was the diplomatic boost, recognition, and the fact the military assets dedicated to the boarder with Egypt were freed for other assignments.
G
G,Again my point is: trying to show as if you have done the arab countries a favor my making peace with them is a false argument. Pisa's ingratitude is very common among Israelis. Peace leads to stability and stability draws attention and investments. You wouldn't be investing in a country which is war zone.... Would you?
"In addition, one must note that US support and Israel’s good graces have not turned Egypt into a haven for foreign investment or produced an economic miracle. Unemployment continues to plague Egyptian youth, and any economic benefits have not noticeable trickled down to Egypt’s lower and middle classes. In fact, one analyst noted that US aid to Egypt is based on a tacit bargain in which “American officials help Egyptian officials to get rich, and Egyptian officials help their American counterparts to validate their reputations.”" The same applies to the so called "peace" in the PA.
"In addition, one must note that US support and Israel’s good graces have not turned Egypt into a haven for foreign investment or produced an economic miracle. Unemployment continues to plague Egyptian youth, and any economic benefits have not noticeable trickled down to Egypt’s lower and middle classes. In fact, one analyst noted that US aid to Egypt is based on a tacit bargain in which “American officials help Egyptian officials to get rich, and Egyptian officials help their American counterparts to validate their reputations.”" The same applies to the so called "peace" in the PA.
The US aid has turned quite a few countries into havens for FDI and economic miracles. In other cases the aid failed to have any significant impact. It depends more on a given country than on the nature of US aid. There is no real difference between the assistance US is providing to Egypt and that to Israel. In Israels' case the aid was a significant factor, though not that significant as it's made to be. Arabs are a hopeless bunch with or without US aid and so the same aid went down the tube. It's as simple as that. In fact, Egypt made a progress in economic terms in recent years but this had little to do with the US aid, but with the fact that the government has finally started dismantling the socialist legacy of Nasserism.
Beloved Brother Mo-Ha-med
I dedicate a whole post to you.
http://nizos.blogspot.com/2009/04/thank-you-saddam-for-hitting-tel-aviv.html
Warm hugs and tender kisses.
Khaled;
It's interesting how our point of views are so different we give entirely different interpretations to the same comments :). To clarify myself, I completely agree that Israel didn't do Egypt a 'Favor' by signing the peace treaty. Each country got very substantial advantages out of it although in different areas: Egypt gained economically and military though had to pay a (short term) price with its relations with other Arab countries. In the long term, relations with Israel actually helped boost Egypt's position as a 'broker' between Israel and Palestinians and as the only Arab country with some leverage over Israel.
Israel gains were no less significant, only different in their focus: more diplomatic and military and less economic.
G
By the way, I stumbled upon this in today's NYT. Looks like a new generation is rising and we will have to go through the same cycle all over again.
NB -
My point exactly. And then there is the rising religiosity which - thank you, Saudi Arabia! - means rising Islamism in the Muslim world. Even as the same youths feel less desire to die for their country, they're feeling more desire to die for their god. Or so one infers and reads.
Khaled -
Actually, a whole bunch of countries are at war with Israel. We are living in a war zone, always did and probably will for decades (if not centuries) to come. But it's a very profitable war zone that proved itself financially over time, so investors are not deterred by the absence of peace; it's an overrated concept anyway. Do you think the temporary lack of war with Egypt and Jordan is fooling anyone but that cretin at Ynet? :)
And mate, ingratitude? Are you serious? We should be grateful for what, exactly? We should be grateful for caving in to American pressure and not destroying your country completely? We should be grateful for having exchanged oil-and-gas-rich Sinai for a lack of war we could enforce anyway? Or perhaps for a slightly less genocidal and belligerent rhetoric from the Arab world? Yes, there were some minor real gains as described by G. Nothing that offsets the potential profits from Sinai territory, beaches, oil and gas. Not to mention the damages inflicted on us by smugglers across our long, practically fenceless border.
Israel profited by giving Egypt the Sinai Bedouins back, though. They're fine people by local standards but not very big on loyalty outside of the tribe, paying taxes or obeying the law.
Anyhow... I'll try to remember to be more grateful after the next war (may it never come, inshallah).
Mo -
Walla, I sincerely hope my dire predictions are way off;
That we're on our way to a regional utopia where all the diverse people of the Missile East will hold hands together and sing Kumbaya;
And also that none will stab anyone or blow up while they're doing it.
As for war - you're giving too little credit to the incredible (LOL) power of human stupidity. And you're underestimating the power of psychotic mullahs.
Neither country would've signed the agreement if they didn't stand to benefit from it; as G said, "very substantial advantages out of it although in different areas". Obviously.
G -
I have read Sandmonkey's post and it's interesting, but I disagree. The relationship isn't a functional one - both countries are doing the least necessary for the agreement to survive. In any rate, I'll take the 'cold peace' setting. And interesting remark about potential improvements coming from the Egyptians.
Nobody:
The US aid has turned quite a few countries into havens for FDI and economic miracles. In other cases the aid failed to have any significant impact. It depends more on a given country than on the nature of US aid..
This is very inaccurate. Part of my research has to do with this kind of topics. It depends on a myriad of factors, from investor confidence to the neighbouring countries' infrastructure quality. And it very much depends on the type of aid, what it goes for, whether it's earmarked, etc. State Dept aid, as opposed to development aid that is given by the World Bank or even USAID, goes to the recipient country's budget - it becomes discretionary spending to the government, can serve to pay civil servants or buy peanuts or go to Monaco.
Re: the article: I read it this morning. It's a little simplistic. I don't think it's a generational divide - rather a dynamic public opinion which one day was convinced that it was a necessary sacrifice, and may have forgotten that with the years.
Nizo: you honour me.
Hugs and love back.
Abu Saar -
Gains to Israel from the peace treaty were anything but minor, are you kidding me? Go back to Khaled and G's conversation for a few hints.
You are actually reacting like the Egyptian youth in the NYTimes article that Nobody linked to.. You're unaware of how it was before the peace agreement, and why the benefits were so large it was worth returning the Sinai.
In a sense, I guess if people have forgotten how the war times were - then the leaders who signed the peace succeeded in their principal mission.
As for Kumbaya - you should follow the definition -
"a Middle Eastern optimist is someone who whistles Kumbaya while cleaning his gun".
Never heard it before? Of course. I just made it up.
This is very inaccurate. Part of my research has to do with this kind of topics. It depends on a myriad of factors, from investor confidence to the neighbouring countries' infrastructure quality. And it very much depends on the type of aid, what it goes for, whether it's earmarked, etc. State Dept aid, as opposed to development aid that is given by the World Bank or even USAID, goes to the recipient country's budget - it becomes discretionary spending to the government, can serve to pay civil servants or buy peanuts or go to Monaco.
There are no myriad of factors and there is no significant difference between the kinds of aid US is giving to Israel and Egypt. This is no USAID or World bank aid. In Israel case most of this aid was usually financing purchasing military equipment, most of it from American companies. Otherwise the US aid to Egypt is mirroring the Israeli one. Israel/Egypt should be a textbook case of a different impact the same aid can have on two neighboring countries.
I would agree that my statement was a bit inaccurate. It's not the US aid that has turned those countries into economic miracles. The correct way to put it is that many recipients of various forms US aid have become economic miracles. More than half of these can be explained by purely cultural factors.
Mo -
"You're unaware of how it was before the peace agreement"
There is a significant difference between Egyptians and Israelis in this regard:
For Egypt, there is no war since '77. You have 32 years olds who don't know how to duck for cover.
For Israel, it's been pretty much war non-stop. Sa'ar's room is an in-house bomb shelter - these can be found in all newly constructed buildings (or in the old house of anyone who can afford it). Just in the past 20 years we had Intifada I, Gulf War, Lebanon War I (cont.), Intifada II and Lebanon War II. That's not counting the numerous military operations. I fought in two of these wars. And then there is the little fact that we all grew up with daily bombings of our cities, listening to non-stop genocidal rhetoric from our enemies.
So no, my reaction is wholly different. Our economic gains from trade and relocated military forces are minuscule when compared to the losses of Sinai's resources, the effort invested in (failing) stopping smugglers, the price of Hamas arms (smuggled in through the Egyptian border) and the fact that this cold peace is a temporary arrangement. You should know that giving something permanent and corporeal (land) for something impermanent and incorporeal ("peace") makes no sense in this case.
Especially when we consider our border with Syria since '73. It's actually quieter than our Egyptian and Jordanian borders. Egypt lost it's appetite for war in '73, khamdu lillah, and I do believe Israel could have maintained the same kind of non-war with it as she does with Syria and other Arab states. And since Israel's reputation in the world has only declined since that peace agreement, I can safely remove this as a concern.
I certainly understand why the peace agreement was signed - it looked much better back then, with the possibility of an actual peace.
Abu Sa'ar : You are in denial. You seem to forget what happened three years ago when you were in war with Hizbullah or even what happened in Gaza three months ago. I wonder how does the business go on in Google's offices in Haifa or in intel offices in Kiryat Gat when you have a war in the north or the south? I am pretty sure that these stories weren't cleared for publication.
Yes, you have shelters .And yes you are used to the status of war, but for how long? not much.... I live in Jerusalem and I have seen the constant flooding of our city streets/hotels with residents of the north and south during the last two wars.
Does Kiryat Shmona, Haifa, Nazareth, Ashdod,Ashkleon,Kiryat Gat and Gadera residents wish to have Peace with Hizbullah or Hamas similar to the one you had with Egypt? Ummm..... I guess so.
So for god sake, stop pretending to play the role of the unbeatable hero.
Khaled -
And again, we could easily have the same kind of peace with Egypt as we do with Syria. Not vice versa, however, and there is no kind of peace we can have with Hizballah and Hamas. Wishing means squat. As said, I wish for everyone in the Missile East to hold hands and sing Kumbaya without killing anyone of blowing up.
But I am a realist. We have a much better chance of killing every single Hamas and Hizballah member than of making peace with them. And I believe that in the next couple of decades we will be left with no other choice.
Mo-Ham-Med;
While both countries nowadays maintain only a cold peace with each other, I maintain that it is Egypt who has less good will than Israel. In fact, it seems that the Egyptian good will on the peace treaty died together with Saadat - from the start Mubarak acted like Netanyaho will treat the inherited Oslo agreements: do the bare minimum without being accused of breaking the rules.
By 'good will', I do not mean the Egypt must refrain from opposing Israel on Palestinian issues and so on. I am just claiming that inter-country leverage is proportional to inter-dependency and cooperation. From that perspective, Egypt’s attitude is contradictory to both its own interests as well as the Palestinians.
Abu Saar:
Take into account the quiet we have on the Syrian border results, to a significant extent, form the Israel-Egypt peace agreement: The absence of a war-partner from the south made it very difficult for Syria to initiate confrontation (the way Syria and Egypt cooperated in 73 and prior).
Khaled:
There is no argument that Israel’s populace suffers just like everybody else under the threat of war. But is also true that Israel has a record of managing to function both civic and industrial wise in times of War.
Even as a kid, during the Scuud bombings, I remember people and businesses continued to function with people using the work-place shelters etc’. To a lesser extent, this continued in the recent conflicts.
I tell of this not to promote the “we are the greatest superheroes” nonsense , but to stress that this is no way to defeat Israel, which will not easily submit to “death of a thousand cuts” as I understand its called…
G
G - agreed about Saadat.
As for the peace with Egypt increasing Syria's conflict aversion... I am not so sure. '73 produced a paradigm shift in the Arab strategic thinking. It became apparent that destroying Israel even by a well-planned sneak attack from two fronts, with wide international support, three Arab armies, incredible numeric superiority and relatively little difference in military equipment is impossible.
And Egypt at the end of '73 was in no position, strategically or tactically, to attack Israel. Bridging the Canal in a sneak attack would've just been too damn difficult.
And we - Israelis - are just people who learned how to function normally in conditions of war. I guess we just had lots of practice.
I remember back in the days before the security barrier, it would take only a few hours to completely clean up a bombing site. A mess of twisted metal, torn flesh sticking to everything, glass all over the place, drains scabbing over with blood; a couple of hours later and all you have is normal traffic, a wet stain on the asphalt and windows without glass.
It's got nothing to do with heroics, just human nature. Long pig adopt to environments. If environments blow up every once in a while, so be it.
Abu Sa'ar:
Yeah, I remember those days well, and have had acquaintances and colleagues die in such attacks. I am not so naive as to fool myself into believing those days cannot come back.
Even so, my perspective is different. It's not only whether the peace treaty we will sign will be worth its price strategically, its not even whether the Arabs will be sincere when they sign it - because I know they won't be. We will still be Islam's comfortable "Public enemy No 1", and for the rest of the world we will remain the same Jews, em, I mean Zionists, they so love to hate :).
But I want to be more than right, I want to be just. Being able to believe that is important, and is in my opinion worth a price, although I am not so naïve as to go suicidal over it.
G
Even so, my perspective is different. It's not only whether the peace treaty we will sign will be worth its price strategically, its not even whether the Arabs will be sincere when they sign it - because I know they won't be. We will still be Islam's comfortable "Public enemy No 1", and for the rest of the world we will remain the same Jews, em, I mean Zionists, they so love to hate :).
You are making it too metaphysical. The fundamental issue is that there are too many signs that the area of what you may call EuroAfrica will be severely destabilized within the next 10-15 years. That's why our peace treaties should not be viewed as a sort of last pieces of a great puzzle to fall in place before the era of uninterrupted prosperity and stability descends on humankind and history comes to a happy end. Quite the opposite is the case.
So whatever moves vs Palestinians or whoever Israel is going to make we should do it for our internal considerations only and not because we are expecting some viable democratic Palestinian state to emerge or other lunacies. Since the incoming destabilization will be massive and it may wipe out in one go all achievements of the peace diplomacy. Never mind that viable democratic Arab states don't exist in the nature. They never did. Lebanon may be the only approximation to democracy the Arab world has and while how much democratic Lebanon is is open to debate, what's not open to debate is that Lebanon is anything but viable.
Nobody;
I don't remember predicting an age of prosperaty or singing "Its the dawn of the age of Aquarious".
I just want to look in the mirror and like what I see. Considering who we are and who we aspire to be, that should'nt be so difficult to understand.
"destabilization of EuroAfrica" - It souds impressive and properly alarming, I admit. And here I was thinking the forsaken sess pool called Africa couldnt get any worse..:)
G
Regarding Africa those bits of information of various reports prepared by the EU and in the US I saw are basically talking about a catastrophe on a massive scale. The Middle East will be also in the epicenter of this climate shit. As to Europe, it does not look very promising at all. Let alone that I don't see that they are doing something or have a sense of urgency.
You should not think that I am an alarmist or something. I am very positive for example about the New World. However this part of the world seems to be heading towards tremendous troubles.
G
Actually I have a post on one of these reports if you are interested: The Shape of Things to Come
G, Abu Sa'ar:
1973 war aim wasn't to wipe Israel out of the map. It's main goal was to melt the ice in order to reach some sort of an agreement.
I cannot argue Israel and Israelis quick adaption to the surrounding environments . I cannot question your responsiveness to attacks in a country at which every citizen is already a soldier under cover. You were continuously able to thwart any attack. At the time being, you are unbeatable by your surrounding enemies.
Yet, IMHO Israel isn't as strong as it used to be in the past. Maybe the enemies have got stronger but it is no longer the way it used to be . Your PM/army/governments/people are no longer the same PM/army/governments/people they used to be in the past. I know that you have better to kill every Hamas/Hizbullah member than reaching to peace with them. Yet, you already failed repeatedly in this mission.
Khaled -
I agree regarding dearth of leadership in Israel. The political system is malfunctioning and needs to go through some basic changes. It's going to be hard and unpleasant and protracted.
The army and people, however, are as strong as ever (and in the case of the army, stronger).
"a Middle Eastern optimist is someone who whistles Kumbaya while cleaning his gun".
I love that! I thought most economists were bores. :D
Helen
Oy--I suspect that both you and Abu-Saar are spot on, and it depresses me immensely. I remember visiting Sinai and Egypt in 96 and having a great time. Would not do that today, to put it mildly.
A relevant article on Ynetnews
"Tourism could be surely be boosted - geographic proximity+higher income could = $$;"
Do you have any idea how hard it is to get to Antalya in Turkey, from Israel? The planes are always full, and never on time. But Israelis go there by the planeload every week. And the Turks are raking in the $$ because it is a great vacation destination and for Israelis, much cheaper than Eilat.
Were Egypt to turn its hand to building an "Antalya" on the Red Sea Coast or Med, and run buses down from Israel, you could wipe out your national debt within a decade, compete with Costa del Sol for the European trade, provide tens of thousands of Egyptians with work (the hotels need staff, but they need food and beverages, and those have to come by truck, etc.)
BTW, I loved this -- "a Middle Eastern optimist is someone who whistles Kumbaya while cleaning his gun".
Aliyah06,
I'd like to have an Antalya on the red sea coast, and let those shekels come to papa. Truly. But I've been noticing something -- no touristic resource in the Sinai caters clearly to Israelis. Sheer hypocrisy.
I mean, even resorts in Cyprus that cater to Russian mafiosi have signs in Russian everywhere - but we seem to be ashamed to cater to Israelis. I'm not much of a Sinai backpacker but I really really don't think there's a single sign in Hebrew.. (anyone?)
peace? after all that has happened in recent years? do not know if people would understand the term either but will definitely need peace now more than ever
generic viagra said...
peace? after all that has happened in recent years? do not know if people would understand the term either but will definitely need peace now more than ever
Even viagra is for peace now. We are totally isolated. *sigh* I am wondering what's about pennis enlargement though...
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